Use of Modeling in the Development of Water Resources and Consumption Scenarios; Case Study: Varamin Plain

Document Type : Original Article/Regular article

Authors

1 MSc, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Teharn, Iran

2 Associate Professor, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Teharn, Iran

3 Assistant Professor,School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Teharn, Iran

Abstract

The utilization of water resources models enables correct and sustainable planning in water resources management. The purpose of this study is to optimize the use of water resources in the catchment area of Varamin plain for 10 years under different management scenarios. To achieve optimal conditions in the volume of water resources, the minimization of non-supply needs and the needs of different land use in Varamin plain were studied. Accordingly, the situation of water resources in Varamin plain in three sectors of agriculture, industry, and drinking using WEAP model under two scenarios: a- reference with prioritization of the ministry of energy and b- scenario of reducing inlet volume by changing prioritization in the period 2016-2026  Solar was evaluated. The climate of the region was studied based on the model of the blue year (flow, precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature) and entered the model. The results showed that according to Scenario A, we will have a 30% shortage of drinking water supply in the region, and this is 37% for the scenario of the reduced input volume. Based on the results, the reference scenario, which in terms of meeting different needs and reliability index of water needs and maximum volume of water not provided during the statistical period, compared to the scenario of the reduced input volume, has a better performance for the Varamin plain, It was considered as the preferred scenario.

Keywords

Main Subjects


احمدآلی، ج.، بارانی، غ.، قادری، ک. و حصاری، ب. 1397. ارزیابی سناریوهای مدیریت آب و تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پایداری زیست‏ محیطی و کشاورزی (مطالعه‌ی موردی: حوضه‌های آبریز زرینه رود و سیمینه رود). مجله اکوهیدرولوژی، 5(4): 1203-1217. 
زینال‏ زاده، ک.، اشرفی، م.، بشارت، س. و یاسی، م. 1398. عملکرد مدل WEAP در شبیه سازی هیدرولوژیک حوضه آبخیز الند. مجله اکوهیدرولوژی، 6(2): 341 -352.
شمشکی، ا. و انتظام سلطانی، ا. 1384. مکانیسم و علل ایجاد شکاف‏های زمین در معین آباد-منطقه ورامین. چهارمین کنفرانس زمین شناسی مهندسی و محیط‏زیست ایران. تهران.
علیزاده، ا.، سیاری، ن. و حسامی‌کرمانی، م. 1389. بررسی پتانسیل اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی‌ بر منابع آب و مصارف آب کشاورزی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز رودخانه کشف‌رود). نشریه آب و خاک، 24(4): 815-835.
گری، ع. 1395. ارزیابی سناریوهای تخصیص آب حوضه آبریز رودخانه تالار با استفاده از مدل WEAP. پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی.
محمدی بهزاد، ح.، رحمانی، ر.، کلانتری، ن. و چیت سازان، م. 1389. بررسی فرآیندهای اثرگذار بر کیفیت آب زیرزمینی دشت گتوند عقیلی،نخستین کنفرانس پژوهش‌‏های کاربردی منابع آب ایران، کرمانشاه.
وزارت نیرو. 1395. شرکت مادر تخصصی منابع آب ایران. گزارش بیلان آبی محدوده مطالعاتی دشت ورامین.

Esteve P., Varela-Ortega C., Blanco- Gutiérrez I. and Downing T.E. 2015. A hydroeconomic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture. Ecological Economics, 120: 49-58.
Faiz MA. Liu D. Fu Q. Uzair M. Khan MI. Baig F. Li T. and Cui S. 2018. Stream flow variability and drought severity in the Songhua River Basin. Northeast China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 32: 1225–1242 
Hashimoto T., Stedinger J.R. and Loucks D.P. 1982. “Reliability. Resiliency. And vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation.” Water Resources Research, 18(1): 14-20.
Hum NNMF. and Abdul-Talib S. 2016. Modeling optimal water allocation by managing the demands in Selangor. In: Proc. of International Symposium on Flood Research and Management (ISFRAM 2015). 5–6 Oct. 
Khalil A., Rittman A., Phankamolsil Y. and Talaluxmana Y. 2018. Groundwater recharge estimation using WEAP model and empirical relations in the Mae Kalong basin. Thailand, Conference 7th International Conference on Environmental Engineering, Science and Management at Centre Hotel and Convention Centre. Thailand.
Levite H., Sally H. and Cour J. 2003. Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28: 779-786
Loucks D.P., Beek E.V., Stedinger J.R., Dijkman J.P.M. and Villars M.T. 2005. Water Resources System Planning and Management: An Introduction to Methods. Models and Applications. 1st Ed. UNESCO. Springer.
Momblanch A., Papadimitriou L., Jain S.K., Kulkarni A., Ojha C.S., Adeloye A.J. and Holman I.P. 2019. Untangling the water-foodenergy-environment nexus for global change adaptation in a complex Himalayan water resource system. Science of the Total Environment, 655: 35-47.
Ospina J.E., Gay C. and Conde A.C. 2009. Analysis of the water supply demand relationship in the Sinú-Caribe basin. Colombia. Under different climate change scenarios. Atmósfera, 22(4): 399-412 
Yates D., Sieber J., Purkey D. and Huber-Lee A. 2005a. WEAP21: A Demand-, Priority-, and preference-driven water planning model. Part 1: Model characteristics. Water International, 30(4): 487-500.
Yates D., Purkey D., Sieber J., Huber-Lee  A. and Galbraith H. 2005b. WEAP21: A Demand-, Priority-, and preference-driven water planning model. Part 2: Aiding freshwater ecosystem service evaluation. Water International, 30(4): 501-512.
CAPTCHA Image