Evaluation of Markov Chain and Automated Cell Integrated Model in Simulation of Land Use Change and Land Cover of Gotvand Dam

Document Type : Applied Article

Authors

• Mohammad Kianpoor kal khajh ¹
• Mehdi Pajouhesh ²
• Samad Emamgholizadeh ³

¹ Master of Water Structures, Shahroud University of Technology, Iran

² Associate Professor of Soil and Water Conservation, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran

³ Professor of Water Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahroud University of Technology, Iran

10.22067/jwsd.v9i2.2112.1106

Abstract

For sustainable land use, it is necessary to reveal the changes in land use and land cover and to identify the factors affecting the changes. The use of remote sensing and GIS provides accurate and systematic information on surface phenomena. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of the integrated model of automatic cell and Markov chain in simulating and predicting temporal and spatial changes of land use changes and land cover in Gotvand dam area. The Kappa coefficient was 0.92 for 1991, 0.97 for 2008, and 0.93 for 2020. The accuracy of the CA-MARKOV model for predicting changes in the second period was 85%. Pastures form the dominant cover of the study area. Also, pasture and barren lands have been destroyed and reduced in area, and the area of other uses has increased. The results of the change prediction matrix based on the map of 2008 and 2020 showed that between 2020 and 2050, 10.37% of water areas, 21.49% of built-up areas, 44.41% of agricultural lands, 25.85% of Barren lands, 41.10% of pastures and 18.15% of meadows will remain unchanged. The results of revealing the land use map of 2050 showed that 31.2% of water areas, 37.5% of built-up areas, 13.9% of agricultural lands, 32.37% of barren lands and 44.78% of pastures in the studied area. The results show the increase of cultivated area and the development of agricultural lands. Also, the results showed that the increase in population and expansion of urbanization in the region has caused the destruction of pastures.

Keywords

• CA-MARKOV
• Remote Sensing
• Forecasting
• Land Use
• Accuracy Assessment

Main Subjects

• Water, Ecosystem and Environment

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