Journal of Water and Sustainable Development

Quantitative assessment of meteorological and hydrological drought propagation in Zayandeh-Rud basins using SPI, SRI indices and intensity-area-abundance (SAF) curves

Articles in Press

Document Type : Technical paper

Authors

mahdi tabashiri
mohammadali alijanian
ghazaleh bahman

isfahan university

10.22067/jwsd.v13i2.2602-1506
Abstract
This study employs the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Severity–Area–Frequency (SAF) curves to quantitatively assess the propagation of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Zayandehroud Basin. The main objective is to examine the relationships between drought patterns across three critical parts of the basin—the upstream source region, the Zayandehroud Dam, and the downstream consumption area. Using monthly precipitation and river discharge data for the period 1988–2018, the indices were calculated at 3‑, 6‑, and 12‑month timescales. The results indicate that meteorological droughts occur more severely and frequently in the downstream region compared to the upstream, and that hydrological droughts emerge with a temporal lag and greater intensity relative to meteorological droughts, reflecting the drought‑propagation processes within the basin’s hydrological system. The analysis of SAF curves shows that the Zayandehroud Dam buffers the severity of hydrological drought at its outlet, particularly at medium‑ to long‑term timescales; however, this buffering effect diminishes during prolonged drought periods. Furthermore, the downstream area exhibits greater vulnerability to widespread droughts. This integrated assessment provides a comprehensive framework for understanding drought propagation in regulated basins and offers insights for developing drought‑adaptive management strategies and reservoir operation policies in the Zayandehroud Basin.

Keywords

Meteorological Drought
Hydrological Drought
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Standardized Runoff Index (SRI)
Severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) Curve
Subjects
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Journal of Water and Sustainable Development

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 25 October 2026

  • Receive Date 19 February 2026
  • Revise Date 17 May 2026
  • Accept Date 16 September 2026

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